FORECASTERS have been taking a stab at predicting what will be in store for the UK this winter with everything mooted, from "record snowfall" to another wet and windy month.
But the perils of long-range forecasting are well documented and experts admit trying to say what the weather will do anything beyond five days is a risky business.
This week Midlands Radio Station Signal1 posted a story on its website, which has since been removed, quoting forecasters from Exacta Weather and Vantage Weather Services and concluding in a headline the "worst winter for decades is on its way."
Last year, using similar sources, the Daily Express newspaper infamously ran a headline warning of "100 days of snow". It proved to be one of the wettest and mildest winters on record.
So can we ever trust a long-range forecast?
A spokesman for the Met Office said: "Of course, by their nature, forecasts become less accurate the further out you look.
"Although we can identify general patterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow an exact forecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise a certain type of weather.
"As a result, 'seasonal forecasts' cannot be as precise as short-term forecasts.
"This is especially true in the UK, one of the hardest places to provide forecasts for because of our size and location."
However, the Met Office does have a go at predicting the future in its three-month outlook, which was also published this week.
It says the current forecasting models suggests the country is in for "milder and wetter than average conditions" for the rest of the year.
This might come as a cruel blow for the thousands of people affected by floods and storms during the winter of 2013 and the chaos that followed in early 2014.
But, by its own admission, the Met Office can only look at probable scenarios and its latest three-month forecast goes on to say: "However, there are still substantial probabilities that average or opposite conditions may occur.
"This is because there are many competing factors that determine what our weather will be like in the coming months."
Online weather experts have been putting out their own predictions for the remainder of the year and how the coldest months will shape up.
Everything from solar activity to volcanic activity in Iceland has been taken into account but few seem to settle on a clear possible outcome.
However, if there is any consensus to find among the barrage of differing opinions, all indications are that we're in for another wet winter. Or possibly a very cold one.
